爱回收到美国IPO做二手3C领域的信贷?锦鲤财经

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In 2021, the news that poshmark, the “American version of idle fish”, was listed and rose by 140% on the first day made the second-hand e-commerce receive the attention of the global capital market again

At the same time, the development of domestic second-hand e-commerce has also entered the fast lane. From the head of the idle fish, turn to the vertical type of looking for beautiful machine, love recycling, recycling treasure, etc., the competition between second-hand track players is becoming increasingly fierce

Through the analysis of various platforms, it seems that among the domestic second-hand e-commerce companies, the desire to go public seems to be the most urgent. In 2016, love recycling said it would hit the market, but it failed in the end; For many years afterwards, Aihui said that it had relevant plans and changed the listing location to Hong Kong or NASDAQ, but there was no result. When financing in September 2020, Guotai Junan, an old securities company, joined the ranks of investors who love recycling, which seems to indicate that love recycling is paving the way for listing

Recently, new progress has finally been made in AI recycle’s listing plan: on May 29, AI recycle submitted an application for IPO in the United States and planned to raise $100 million. Aihui will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code of “rare”

From the perspective of the prospectus, the path of love recycling seems to be more like Youxin in the field of second-hand cars: through to B business to support performance and financial data, it impacts the first share of domestic second-hand 3C e-commerce. However, a problem that can not be ignored is that love recycling, which has been struggling in the second-hand market for 10 years and is seriously short of vitamin “C”, may not be able to recover the situation of being “hunted” by giants even if it goes public. At the same time, its too single to B business can not support the growth space of the future market

It can be seen from the comparison that poshmark, mercari of Japan and several other foreign second-hand platforms are all facing C-end users, while airecycle starts from b-end

Aihui’s prospectus shows that almost all of its performance is supported by tob business. For example, in 2020, 88% of its products are scattered to B, which also means that the core business model of recycling is not the mainstream of the second-hand market

The biggest difference is that there is a huge and abundant demand and supply at the C end. Second hand goods supply is scattered, non-standard is obvious, has the characteristics of one SKU for each product, and the users who buy second-hand goods also have diverse and scattered needs. Therefore, it is easier to balance demand and supply and make it bigger and stronger by adopting TOC mode. This is why idle fish and Zhuanzhuan can quickly become the two poles of the second-hand market by virtue of C2C and the derived c2b2c mode, and occupy more than 90% of the market share

For a long time, airecycle has been doing b-end business. Its main business, C2B, accounts for a small share in the whole second-hand mobile phone market. For the capital market, it lacks enough market imagination. At the same time, according to the latest prospectus of Aihui, the to B business undertaken by Aihui’s auction hall accounts for the majority of its financial and performance data

Because of this, since 2013, AI recycle has been on the road of frequent financing. Up to now, AI recycle has the largest amount of financing in the industry, more than US $800 million. Among several foreign platforms that have been listed, the real real, with the largest amount of financing, is only US $334.6 million, less than half of AI recycle

Lack of C-terminal gene, relying on b-terminal to start, let love recycling bear heavy financial pressure, and always face the dilemma of lack of money. But for second-hand e-commerce, online is the core source of supporting business and traffic growth. Although offline stores can establish a brand, the so-called brand effect is just empty talk before they form enough outlets

In particular, the second-hand goods are highly non-standard, and the big pain lies in how to promote the transaction faster and more efficiently, solve the trust problem, and make the supply and demand flow better. Such as love recycling, the expansion of core business depends on stores, which will be limited by the physical space, so it is impossible to realize the real rapid expansion of business scale

Therefore, in the absence of to C gene, if Aihui still insists on the store size, for investors and capital markets, it will consider the growth of its business size, and how to achieve the balance between scale and efficiency, so as to avoid continuous bleeding

What’s more, another drawback of relying on the offline is that the threshold is low and the moat cannot be built. Once a competitor with capital, traffic and user advantages into the offline, then love recycling can deal with the impact is also a problem. This hidden worry has also become a reality: in December last year, after upgrading its brand, Xianyu made a high-profile publicity and laid out offline. Compared with love recycling, idle fish not only has the advantages of users and categories, but also is not poor in money. For love recycling, the entry of idle fish has made it restless

It can be seen that whether it is the second-hand platform that has been listed abroad or the development status of domestic idle fish and Zhuanzhuan, capital and market prefer to C mode. Relying on the inherent mode of love recycling, even if the impact of listing success, I am afraid it is difficult to obtain a good valuation

Because from the perspective of the industry’s existing cognition, Aihui, which has been integrated into the e + round, has reached the node where it needs to be listed, otherwise it will be difficult to stabilize the patience of investors. Previously, it has been reported in the investment circle that the early investors who love recycling are confused about the business model of love recycling. The long-term revenue growth is slow. At the same time, they continue to burn money, but they rely too much on to B business in terms of performance, which does not bring returns to investors

At first, I love to recycle and clap. First, I want to get financing help from Jingdong. Second, I want to defend myself. Although it is not a good “target”, there is at least Jingdong’s traffic available. Therefore, after the merger, paipai began to transform gradually. In September last year, paipai became the gripper of the B2C mode of airecycle

However, the volume of patting itself is very limited, and it lacks the ability of self blood production. In the past, the to B mode and concept of love recycling are very different from B2C. The C-end users have more stringent requirements for machine inspection, after-sales and other platform services, which love recycling lacks

这也导致AI回收无法成功回收C端。比达咨询发布的数据显示,2020年3月,国内十大二手电子商务企业中,淘宝网仅32.2万家,排名第九,AI recycle仅以51万家排名第七,数据与头部平台存在较大差距

而且,淘宝网向B2C转型后,airecycle还面临一个重要的问题:依赖于单个通道。如果没有京东的流量支持,艾瑞循环和拍拍网自身能否赢得客户,供需能否维持目前的水平,都是投资者判断自身价值的重要方面,艾瑞回收在招股书中也提到,艾瑞回收对京东的依赖度很大,而要获得京东的支持,必须满足一定的条件。如果不能满足这些要求,将对艾回收的业务、经营成果和财务状况产生重大不利影响目前艾回收的C端布局效果不好。事实上,在二级市场上很难满足之前的投资者和吸引新的投资者,为了获得更好的估值,人工智能回收需要令人信服的业绩。不过,艾回收似乎更愿意讲述所谓的“长久之计”,由于C端补偿效果并不理想,艾回收开始向多元化扩张,这也是去年9月品牌升级的主要原因。人工智能回收业务进行了分类包装。除了原有的C2B和B2B之外,它还强调B2C,并冠以全新的品牌外壳“一切都是新的”,这使得故事的内容显得丰富

另一方面,它的海外扩张,将通过出海提升估值空间。但从目前的地理因素和海外二手市场的成熟程度来看,出海回收并非易事

Tiktok:

近年来中国出海难。华为和jitter已经占领了市场,但在任何地方都是有限的。他们很难扮演他们的角色。其他企业大多是高调收官之后。且不说,二手手机3C产品仍需面对隐私安全的监管

新兴市场智能手机仍以低端手机为主,低端二手手机的回收价值非常有限;但是,欧美的二手手机市场相对完善,供应链的流通和回收有着严格的规定,在各业务层面竞争激烈、海外业务前景难以预料的背景下,进入市场并不容易,即使升级为“凡事皆新”,即将赴美IPO的艾回收也缺乏足够的市场吸引力

爱回收常被比作为借壳找房子,但从招股说明书及其商业模式来看,它与主要为C端买家服务的壳牌有很大不同。其实,艾回收看起来更像二手车领域的友鑫。在对B业务的支持下冲击美股,但市场估值空间明显偏小

更大的问题是,在竞争日趋激烈的轨道上,如何让现有的业务基础不受巨头的围攻,阻止持续下跌是爱回收的核心。否则,在讲述新故事之前,所谓“长期主义”的老故事将在IPO时结束